Today, I want to talk about curves. I know what you are thinking, but no, we will not be talking about sexy cosplayers and how to incorporate them into your campaign. I want to talk about funding curves for your Kickstarter and an interesting trend I noticed with Stones of Fate.
As I was approaching the end of the Stones of Fate Kickstarter, I was expecting a sharp increase in number of backers and amount pledged during the final 2-3 days of my campaign. I was surprised to see that did not pan out (at least it appeared so at the time).
Here is what I was expecting:
Here is what I got:
Notice the sharp uptick on Disaster Looms in the first picture.
I had always heard that the final days of a Kickstarter campaign resulted in a large upswing in backers and pledges.
This did not appear to be the case (at least not as large as I had expected) with Stones of Fate. I then saw the same thing happen on Jamey Stegmaier’s Tuscany campaign.
It seemed like that campaign did not have as large of an upswing as I had seen on other campaigns as well. So I decided to analyze some of the data from Kicktraq to see if I could figure out what was happening.
Kicktraq?
Kicktraq.com is a fantastic campaign resource from Adam Clark. Since starting in 2012, Kicktraq reports as tracking nearly 100,000 Kickstarter projects! It’s useful to both project creators and supporters, keeping tabs on useful data re: backers, pledges and comments.
I examined 10 different projects (4 from fellow league members) and looked at the number of backers brought in the first three days of the campaign and the final 3 days of the campaign.
| Project Name | Stones of Fate | What The Food?! | Evil Intent | Ars Victor | King of Crime | Unexploded Cow | Heavy Steam | Disaster Looms | GripMats | Tuscany |
| #Backers-first 3 days | 210 | 94 | 182 | 101 | 24 | 310 | 129 | 32 | 53 | 1913 |
| 1st 3 days as percentage of total backers | 36% | 22% | 30% | 38% | 23% | 24% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 44% |
| #Backers-final 3 days | 129 | 103 | 99 | 45 | 14 | 277 | 100 | 512 | 681 | 779 |
| Final 3 days as percentage of total backers | 22% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 21% | 18% | 52% | 43% | 18% |
| Ratio of final 3 days to opening 3 days | 61% | 110% | 54% | 45% | 58% | 89% | 78% | 1,600% | 1,285% | 41% |
Based on this table I conclude that Kickstarter projects can be grouped into 3 main categories:
Front Loaded Campaigns
A front loaded campaign is one in which a significant portion of backers pledges on the first day of the campaign. These campaigns have made an effort to spread the word early and to generate interest ahead of the campaign start date. They will usually not see as high of a spike at the end due to many of the interested supporters jumping on board in the first few days.
A perfect example of a Front Loaded Campaign is Tuscany
Jamey was able to draw in 1,913 backers during the first 3 days of his campaign (44% of his total backers) but only saw an increase of 18% in number of backers over the final 3 days.
Equally Spaced Campaigns
These campaigns follow the more traditional pattern of a large opening couple of days and then a large (almost equal to the original) spike at the end of the campaign. When I think of the equally spaced campaign, I think of What The Food?! by fellow League member Peter Vaughan
Peter brought in 94 backers over the first 3 days of the campaign and then 103 backers over the last 3 days of the campaign showing that traditional Kickstarter curve in the process.
I would say Stones of Fate fits somewhere in between the Front Loaded and the Equally Spaced campaigns.
We did get 210 backers (36%) in the first 3 days but were also able to bring in another 129 (22%) during the last 3 days as well.
Back Loaded Campaigns
Finally, there are the back loaded campaigns. These are the rare campaigns that don’t make a splash in the first few days but somehow manage to pick up steam over the course of the campaign and end with a bang. The perfect example of this are the campaigns from Break From Reality Games: Disaster Looms and GripMats. We will look at the GripMat campaign to see what these back loaded campaigns look like.
Eric Salyers owns Break From Reality Games. To this day I am not sure how he managed to get 42% of his backers in the final 3 days while only bringing in 3% in the first 3 days. But he has shown that pattern in other campaigns as well and it seems to work well for him. You can’t argue with his success.
Overall, I think I would prefer my future campaigns to be in the Front Loaded category. It just seems less stressful to know right off the bat that you are doing well. True, you cannot expect as much of a swing at the end but I don’t think that would bother me if I saw more activity and pledges up front. What do you say, where do you want your campaign to fit? Obviously I only looked at 10 campaigns so more research can definitely be done. Do you see any other categories or trends that we can put campaigns into?
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Jeff calls himself an engineer but that’s just his cover. In reality most people don’t know what he does. We’re not even sure he does. Sometimes he can be found designing games, other times developing other people’s designs and bringing them to kickstarter. He is supported in all this by his loving wife and 2 boys who always keep him on his toes.
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23 Readers Commented
Join discussionFascinating article!
We know that Stegmaier maintains a very strong network of fans that leads to a lot of anticipation for his games. When Stonemaier games is getting ready to launch, everybody knows about it. It seems like this is a characteristic of front-loaded campaigns.
Have you found factors that contribute to the other two curve types?
Perhaps different patterns of advertising or promoting? Different types of tiers offered?
I’m interested to hear if readers have additional stories about their curves they could contribute and attribute.
I did ask Eric what he thought contributed to his campaigns being so back loaded. he attributed mainly to people’s procrastination. he said he didnt do anything special. i still think something else is going on there. something he may not even be aware of or tracking.
I still say I would rather be in the front loaded category. just seems to offer less stress and worry throughout the campaign.
Fantastic analysis of campaigns. I thought they all followed the same curve. It’s good to see some variety in the way they play out.
I have no idea how Eric Salyers does it. That would be far too stressful. I’m not sure you could ever recommend that campaign strategy, since I think for the majority they would not be able to replicate the 11th hour success. Myself I’m going for a frontloaded campaign for my relaunch, but I suspect it’ll be more equally spaced than I’d like.
I have been following kickstarters for a long time now and the statement of “last two days” when email reminders are sent out use to be far more pronounced as a rule, this has noticeably changed lately though and I can think of two conclusions to explain this. Either people are more comfortable with kickstarter and pledging early or most people are burnt out on kickstarter and only the hardcore are left who will pledge early. If you look at the campaigns from a year ago when KS hype was at it’s peak you will see a much higher percentage of back loaded campaigns than now.
It would be interesting to look at unsuccessful campaigns and see if they tend to correlate most closely to one or the other of these categories. That might indicate the relative risk of trying to front or back load.
Yes, Pat, I agree. There is some amount of “people getting used to Kickstarter” here. I want to do some more analysis and see how these trends present themselves in the past and how they continue into the future.
It’s also worth noting that your “back loaded campaigns” are still clearly on track to be funded from day 1. Disaster looms had consistent pledges driving it to cross the finish line around the half-way mark, while grip mat made its goal in the first few days. So your big spike at the end isn’t something that will push you across the finish line. It’s people jumping aboard an already successful project.
Awesome post, Jeff. I like seeing the data side by side. I agree with you that I’d prefer to have a front-loaded campaign–that burst of momentum from Day 1 has a huge impact on the rest of the project. My theory is that front-loaded campaigns will experience more cancellations over the course of the project, but I’d rather have people back the project and cancel later than press the 48-hour “remind” me button and miss out on being a part of the community for the duration of the campaign.
Good point, Jamey.
I hadn’t mentioned anything about the community surrounding Kickstarters but that is definitely something to be aware of and to focus on as you design your campaign. Intentionally creating community may also help drive it toward a Front Loaded model.
Yes, Alan, I failed to mention that, but neither of the Break From Reality Games projects were in “danger” of not funding. I am not saying that is a wrong way to do it. Whatever they are doing is working for them. I would still feel more comfortable though, knowing I had a huge burst at the beginning, but that’s just a personal preference. I can imagine it would probably be pretty exciting watching it surge there at the end too.
This is an interesting article and reassuring because I have a front-loaded campaigning and expected (but haven’t got) lots of activity these last three days. It’s instead been the same pace as mid campaign. Small campaign, currently 95% funded with 86 backers. I haven’t had any cancellations – two backers upped their pledge unprompted.
A day before the campaign was launched I wrote to most of my friends and contacts to ask them to pledge at the minimum level of £1. I prepared a step-by-step guide on my blog as a hidden page to show them how to register and pledge. I sent them the campaign link the next day when it went live. I was hoping some people would pledge £5 or £10 but was astounded when many of my friends pledged for rewards, and a few at the £125 level!
But once you’ve exhausted your network, you’ve exhausted your network. I have spent the remainder of the campaign promoting it online to people I don’t know.
(My campaign is called “fingers & tongues” in case you’re interested. It ends Weds, 21 May afternoon.)
I had assumed that the scramble at the end was because of the Reminder going out and the higher visibility of ending-soon projects on Kickstarter.
This is a really interesting post. Thanks for sharing. I wonder how much the type of game has to do with how it funds? Like does a certain type of gamer back games in a certain way/at a certain time int he campaign?
Very Interesting, I’d say our campaign might fall in the Front Loaded category.. we’ll have to wait until the end to really know, tho..
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/37135808/loading-human
Front-loaded campaigns tend to fall in one of two categories:
1) established companies offering a new product or an expansion for an existing product (Tuscany)
2) relaunches of unsuccessful campaigns (Stones of Fate)
I suspect that new project creators are very unlikely to have a successful, front-loaded campaign.
Very good point Tim. I had meant to say something about what I think drives front loaded campaigns but didn’t get it in before my deadline. With that being said though, I do think with and intensive marketing campaign, and getting the word out early through lots of social media/conventions a new project manager can put themselves in the front loaded category.
Great article! I loved the use of the data and comparing/contrasting the different campaign styles. The issue with big data is often people paint with a broad brush and say “you have to always do this vs that”. You’ve done a great job illuminating different strategies.
Right now our campaign funded 50% in about 72 hours. We still havent used our email blasts, family/friends emails etc. So we are taking a slow and steady approach.
I would say (boxing terms) we are throwing jabs and landing a hook every so often (jabs being private messages, some specific posts from our personal accounts to geographies) then we are landing right hooks with big posts sharing when we hit 30% and 50%.
Now we are starting to work the body (mid campaign) early with a press release, video interview we had on a show, and then towards the end (Round 15) go all in with everything we got.
Here’s our campaign (pledge if you like it! Its a great idea) https://kck.st/1REEvPG
Remember “Timing beats speed. Precision beats power”.
Interesting look at the stats, but I’d also take these charts and lay them out by date – 1st & 15th style. Because so many game Kickstarters operate like storefronts, it makes sense that “paydays” might influence the decision to back and the amount to back for… nevermind that the funds don’t actually come out at that time – if the backers are anything like me, they’re looking at the amount of entertainment budget they have before committing to a Kickstarter.
It would be interesting to look at that. Like I said, there is much more analysis to do. 🙂
“I suspect that new project creators are very unlikely to have a successful, front-loaded campaign.”
Well, I’m a new project creator and I had a front-loaded campaign. I got 35% funding within 24 hours by asking my network before the campaign to pledge at the minimum level. It’s also in a genre that has a poor success rate on Kickstarter, erotica.
My campaign reached its funding goal today with 20 hours to go. https://kck.st/1hSCfDT
I guess Evil Intent was an equally spaced campaign, but since it was a second go around and the first wave came from previous supporters, I wonder if it’s not really that.
Very interesting article. I too would like to know more about the categories of the unsuccessful projects.
Great article! I loved the use of the data and comparing/contrasting the different campaign styles. The issue with big data is often people paint with a broad brush and say “you have to always do this vs that”. You’ve done a great job illuminating different strategies.
Right now our campaign funded 50% in about 72 hours. We still havent used our email blasts, family/friends emails etc. So we are taking a slow and steady approach.
I would say (boxing terms) we are throwing jabs and landing a hook every so often (jabs being private messages, some specific posts from our personal accounts to geographies) then we are landing right hooks with big posts sharing when we hit 30% and 50%.
Now we are starting to work the body (mid campaign) early with a press release, video interview we had on a show, and then towards the end (Round 15) go all in with everything we got.
Here’s our campaign (pledge if you like it! Its a great idea) https://kck.st/1REEvPG
Remember “Timing beats speed. Precision beats power”.